Expert Fading Kirk Cousins on Thanksgiving

Happy Thanksgiving, everyone.

Before we get into my props, there were two Thanksgiving specials that stood out to me on DraftKings that I want to cover.

Josh Allen is +240 to record the most passing yards on Thanksgiving, and Gabe Davis is +1300 to lead the slate in receiving yards.

I project Davis closer to +900 to top the receiving charts on Turkey Day. He has a wider range of outcomes than most players, so you could argue that should be lower.

Davis doesn’t need the volume of other receivers to win this bet given his big-play ability. There’s a scenario where he leads the slate with something like 125 receiving yards entering the last game of the night. If that’s the case, you can hedge your bet by betting Justin Jefferson’s receiving yards over. If Jefferson goes under his 88.5 total, it’s unlikely anyone else goes over 125. If he goes between 89 and 124 receiving yards, you’d win both bets.

The bet on Allen goes hand in hand with Davis. I’d say a fair price on Allen is closer to +200.

With that out of the way, here are my favorite props for all three Thanksgiving games.

Singletary is coming off a season-high 18 rushing attempts last week against the Browns. It was just the third time he’s cleared this total in 10 games.

Against Cleveland, Singletary benefitted from Josh Allen registering season lows in passing (197) and rushing (seven) yards. I think we’ll see him bounce back with a big enough game through the air and on the ground that he eats into Singletary’s workload.

Also, we saw second-round rookie James Cook register his best game of the season, with 11 carries for 86 rushing yards. Singletary dominates passing-down and 2-minute work, but the Bills could continue to use Cook on early downs to keep the veteran fresh.

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Another thing working against Singletary in this market is he doesn’t get many attempts on third or fourth and short. The Bills have a foolproof quarterback sneak where they line up Gabe Davis behind Allen, driving the QB forward.

There are also some sneaky guardrails on this prop. If the Lions are able to keep it close, that’ll force the Bills into a pass-heavy game script.

If the Bills get a huge lead, they tend to bubblewrap Singletary and let Cook dominate the work. Buffalo also might want to finally get Nyheim Hines some reps on offense. Any rushing attempts he gets will only help this prop.

I’m projecting Singletary for closer to 12.5 rushing attempts and would bet this down to -140.

I can’t think of a better way to spend Thanksgiving than sweating a Lawrence Cager prop during dinner time (on the East Coast).

I think this prop offers sneaky value because the Giants will likely be forced into a pass-heavy game script as 10-point underdogs.

Daniel Jones just lost his top target, Wan’Dale Robinson, for the rest of the season. That makes Darius Slayton the new go-to receiver, although it’s unknown who will emerge as the No. 2 option.

Cager will continue to be the Giants’ lead pass-catching tight end until rookie Daniel Bellinger…

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